Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Obviating the risk of measurement error

Today I was even more inclined than yesterday to just go ahead and rest on my laurels. It was going to be sunny and 10 or so degrees above the average for the day but compared to yesterday's 20 or so above average, it was going to be coolish. And today I actually have earned the laurels to rest upon.

A look at the longer range forecast convinced me to ride. I need to eliminate the possibility that due to a measurement error my mileage total is actually somewhat short of 4,000 miles. After all the 4,004 total that I was claiming after yesterday's ride is exceeding the annual goal by a mere one-tenth of one percent. Most would agree that .001 is within the reasonable range of measurement error.

Today was nice but it looks very very much like tomorrow is going to be the final day of the season. Tomorrow should be rideable as we ramp up to a possible all time high on Thursday. Of course, I have other plans for Thursday (right click on the link and open in a new tab) and will not be riding. Friday calls for a return to average or slightly below average high temperatures (38 as of today) which is going to be too cold to ride. One of the weather guys went so far as to say that there is a possibility of a snow storm for Monday. As I contemplated resting on my laurels it looked like today and tomorrow may be the last two days of the bicycling season. Because I would prefer to have a final mileage total at least one percent over the annual goal it seemed prudent (was it George Bush Senior who said it wouldn't be prudent all the time?) to get some miles in today.

So I did.

I rode out through the swamp at Grass Lake again. The extremely low sun angle even at shortly past midday made for an interesting intermix of light and shadow down there in the heart of the swamp.
While pausing at the turnaround point I discovered a for now not hugely serious but a nevertheless troubling cut just off the center contact zone of my front tire. It strikes me as ironic that I recently swapped out the rear tire due to fears that it had reached the end of its useful life and now it is the front tire that is the danger zone.

But I have only one ride left for this year, the cut is small and a little off to the side, it wants to bulge but really isn't yet. I am going to chance it tomorrow and go for that one last ride.

Here is my favorite local dune grass planting located nowhere near a sand dune.
It is, however, located near Lake Owasso in what is clearly glacial terrain, there is a fairly strong probability that the shoreline there features soil with a significant proportion of sand and gravel. Maybe that's why it is doing so well.

I have despaired of ever getting a photograph of that stuff from the angle where it looks the absolute most stunning. That angle is directly towards the now low lying sun with the sun's rays back lighting the grass heads. It looks OK from this angle though and maybe everyone will have to imagine the rest.

Or come on over some time in late fall and I will show you where it is.

One to go.

4 comments:

Retired Professor said...

That's some fancy dune grass.

Light snow accumulations Friday into Saturday here, with the same next Monday. This is it, we've been told.

Jimi said...

We may be domed.

Jimi said...

Thirty-six miles gets you a 1% margin of safety. Did you need a few more miles?

Gino said...

Tomorrow promises to be a nice enough day. I need 8 more miles. Even on the last day of the season with an ailing tire I like my chances.