Measurement error insurance

It is just a little after 5pm here and it is pitch dark.

*sigh*

When DST ends the darkness just comes slamming down. On these days in mid-November it is more important than ever to try to get outside during the middle of the day even on a day as grey as today with no actual sun visible. At least it was light.

Today I dealt with the issue of possible measurement error. I want to ride 4,000 miles in a year but doing so depends at least somewhat on reliance upon fairly rudimentary bicycle odometers. All of the bicycle odometers that I am familiar with accept input about the circumference of a bicycle wheel, count the number of revolutions of the wheel and produce a display showing results of the conversion of revolutions into miles.

I happen to have a fair amount of confidence in my brand of bicycle odometer. Because of life experience I know to expect that certain distances on the street grid should be quite close to one mile, I know this because I often know that I am riding along a public land survey section line. Particularly in the north south direction the distance from section corner to section corner is most often going to be one mile. I ride that segment of road and notice that my bicycle odometer has advanced one mile. This gives me confidence in the odometer.

Even so, measurement error is certain, the only question is how big is the error? Well, I think based on observation that it may well be one percent or less. Therefore if I intend to be certain of having ridden 4,000 miles it is best to ride at least one percent over 4,000, or 4,040.

4,006 needs to be augmented just ever so slightly. Today I did so.

But the real interesting bit was the ongoing University Avenue light rail project. The Raymond Avenue intersection is now emphatically open to traffic. In fact, I have heard from a reliable source that soon University will be open to four lanes of traffic from Hampden to the city limits.

Well, Hampden happens to be my actual crossing of choice for University and with curiosity thus aroused I, on my return trip, turned east and meandered down to Hampden.I may still be crossing at Raymond as at least there the stop and go lights are back to full functionality. A four way stop in a little more iffy on a street like University and that makes Hampden still questionable. But at least there is a question, the intersection is open.

The sun never really emerged, it stayed cool and when I got home I had work to do. The second crop of leaves had reached a point which made TOPWLH uncomfortable.She had raked the leaves into those piles before I got home. My task was to operate the machinery to vacuum those leaves off the lawn and into disposal bags.

A pretty good time was had by all.