Rest day

Very heavy rain moved through at about 3pm creating a rest day.

This also allowed me to catch up on le Tour.

Right now I think my prediction for the finish is the exact same prediction that I made before the race began. The three favorites to me look to be Evans, Leipheimer and Klöden. Evans is currently the best placed on GC off a good performance in the Alps, he is a strong time trial rider and his team is without the distraction of also having to prepare to help McEwen in the sprints. Klöden is a strong time trial rider, looks to be riding through the injury and rides for one of the very best teams, a team which will be looking for redemption for itself and for its injured team leader, Vinokourov. Leipheimer has always said that his best chances will come in the Pyrenees, that those mountains suit his style better than the Alps. He is a strong time trial rider, riding for a team which suddenly looks to have multiple contenders for the lead. Popovych, Gusev and Hincapie are all strong support riders, Popovych's results to this point good enough that he probably is still harboring GC thoughts for himself. Leipheimer is the team leader but even he must be impressed by the emergence of Contador. In an interview with VeloNews, no less a source than CSC's Dave Zabriskie says Contador is the man to beat. Discovery looks very strong.

And what of Rasmussen? He is sure to lose time in the time trial. He must limit his losses and try to gain more time in the Pyrenees. However, he is now a marked man, the other contenders will not let him go in a breakaway with lesser riders as they did the first day in the Alps. If Rasmussen goes now everyone who considers himself a contender must go with him. It will be very difficult for Rasmussen to have another day where he gains big time.

My choice now is my choice before the race began, Cadel Evans. Evans is currently fourth but only the extra seconds in time bonus awarded to Valverde for the finish after Galibier boost Valverde into second overall. Mayo is third but leads Evans by only two seconds. If Rasmussen falters in the race against the clock, Evans seems best positioned to assume the lead. It is now too close to call, but my choice is Evans.

The big days coming up now look to be Saturday and Sunday. Saturday is the a 54 km time trial which includes a category 4 climb. This is obviously a stage critical for all of the current leaders and contenders. Sunday is the first day in the Pyrenees, an extremely difficult day of climbing. The stage begins with a category 2 climb but the real test begins three hours later with a beyond category climb, a descent, and almost immediately the beyond category climb to Plateau de Beille, 16 km at an average gradient of nearly 8 percent, for a mountaintop finish. This is the most difficult summit finish of the Tour and the stage winner could well be the overall winner of the race the following Sunday in Paris.

I love the Tour. Here is the site of the conclusion of the race:As photographed by me from the top of this:That's The Babe and The Guide in the foreground.