80 percent chance

I did not ride yesterday, an actually pretty welcome break.  An important family event which would in even the greatest of weather kept me from riding was totally removed as the cause of no ride by a couple of really nasty rain squalls.  There was a probably just long enough sunny and pretty (but perhaps muggy) interlude that allowed outdoor photos but the day ended up being notable for those rain squalls.  Still the family event came off, it seemed to me, without a hitch.  It was interesting and fun and who doesn't like seeing other people happy?  After a suitable pause there was a party and that too was interesting and fun.

So, what about this rain thing?  Well, we needed the rain, TOPWLH has recently taken to watering the BNT.  That shouldn't really be necessary, conditions haven't really yet advanced to the point of drought.  Watering the BNT totally has my buy in though, that's a great tree and we both want to see it continue to be hardy and successful.  It has gained probably less than a foot in height this growing season but it has easily gained more than a foot in width.  It is a great tree.

I digress.

So today all indications were that I would have another day off.  Every weather predictor said at least 70 percent chance of rain with the one that I prefer advancing the probability all the way to 80.  Another way of looking at that is a 20 percent chance that it won't rain.  So I wasn't even paying that much attention until at that time when I generally start my ride I noticed that it was a big majority blue sky.  The only appropriate thing to do seemed to me to be to start my ride.

I knew from looking at the radar that the onset of any weather event was likely to be from the northwest.  With an 80 percent chance of rain I didn't want to get too far from home but I also have gradually acquired an aversion to those way too close to home loops.  Constructing a ride in that manner is boring, you don't get anywhere, you end up going too slow etc.

So a northwest wind convinced me to ride a first leg tailwind to the south, a Lake Como circumnavigation, followed by an end of Hamline leg to the north.  This had the effect of making a couple of loops feel like a real ride.  The leg from the south end of Como to the north end of Hamline which would be the leg into the wind is more than 10 miles, that makes it feel like a real ride.

I had another reason for following this route which was more complex than that.  My most disappointing weather catastrophes have occurred when I allowed the rain storm to sneak up behind me.  I knew the storm was likely to come from the northwest, I wanted to as soon as possible get turned around and be riding towards the north (and west) so that I could watch the sky in front of me in order to see the bad weather, if it came, in front of me, so it couldn't sneak up.

I got turned around at the far south end of Como Park.  I had been riding about five miles at this point and took an opportunity at the Como Woodlands Outdoors Classroom to take a good look at the sky.

That's a huge limestone fireplace, a really pretty spot.  I have no personal knowledge about how much and what sort of use the "outdoor classroom" gets but any use it gets is, in my view, good.  That is an area of the park that has been underused in the past.

I was facing directly northwest to take that photo.  The park looks nice but above the tree line that whole 80 percent chance thing is still trying to get organized.

I rode down past the pool and around the lake and out to a spot on the north end of the park.  I found these two, I think maple trees to be pretty interesting.  I suspect winter kill as opposed to the other possibility which would be early onset of fall.

This seems WAY too early for even EARLY fall.  And there a couple of other indications of negative effects from a horrible winter.  For one, the tree in front also has a branch that doesn't look good.  And frankly those two firs behind the house don't seem to be totally good.

I am calling them firs because at this distance I decided to identify them as Balsams.  I didn't ride around to get a better look, it is totally possible that they are some spruce or another which is of course totally not a fir.

Firs.  I am going with firs.

So, probably I should touch on how it went.

It went pretty well.  For example, I felt considerably better riding today than I felt walking yesterday.  At this point in the season the condition of my hamstrings is pretty good for the circular motion of pedaling.  Those same muscles are not nearly as conditioned for the linear flexion of, oh, for example, walking.

My walking fitness is plenty good for the day to day walking necessary to complete common every day tasks.  However, the walk to and from the last row of the parking lot at yesterday's family event proved to be pretty close to my comfort level.  I feared for a moment on the way back out to the cars that I was going to gimp up and have to hobble the rest of the way.

Oh, well.  It's always something.

Today I felt just fine but on the other hand I didn't attempt any extended walks today.  The bicycling felt good.

It still has not rained here although when I went out to the street to fetch the mail I heard thunder coming from all around.  80 percent chance doesn't necessarily mean 80 percent of the time it will be raining.  But I doubt very much that midnight will arrive without there having been a precipitation event here, perhaps even a fairly significant event.